ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 262139 SPC MCD 262139 NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-262315- Mesoscale Discussion 1785 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Sun Sep 26 2021 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262139Z - 262315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms across Arizona and New Mexico are expected to continue this afternoon and evening. Recent radar trends suggest some strengthening over the last hour with an increasing risk for a few instances of damaging winds or hail with the strongest storms. Given the relatively limited threat, a weather watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 2115 UTC, radar and satellite imagery showed scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing across portions of southern Arizona and western New Mexico. Associated with a weak upper low moving out of the Gulf of California, these storms are ongoing in a moderately unstable environment with around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis. As lift from the trough and a 35 kt mid-level jet streak continues to impinge on the monsoonal moisture in place, continuation of the current storms and some additional development appears likely. Deep-layer shear profiles are weak to moderate (30-40 kts), but should continue to support a few organized multicell clusters or weak supercells as mid-level southwesterlies increase ahead of the jet. Given relatively steep lapse rates of 7 C/km in the low to mid levels, a few instances of damaging outflow winds and severe hail appear likely into this evening. Latest model guidance and observational trends suggest peak severe coverage will likely be reached over the next hour or two as ongoing storms move through the area of maximum solar heating and favorable boundary-layer moisture near the Arizona New Mexico border. As convection shifts slowly to the east with time, a drier airmass and increasing nocturnal inhibition should begin to diminish the severe threat later this evening. Given the relatively narrow window and expected isolated severe coverage, a weather watch appears unnecessary. ..Lyons/Grams.. 09/26/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC... LAT...LON 31130806 31180969 31561027 32060992 32810939 33300914 33920882 34660818 35060742 34980646 33780615 32640628 31810666 31630704 31670809 31130806 NNNN