ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 231430 SPC MCD 231430 NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-231630- Mesoscale Discussion 1782 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0930 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Areas affected...Portions of the Delmarva Peninsula into southeastern PA and NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231430Z - 231630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to damaging wind gusts may continue through the early afternoon. Watch issuance remains unlikely. DISCUSSION...A north-south oriented band of storms should continue to make slow eastward progress across the Delmarva Peninsula over the next couple of hours. This activity is occurring along a surface cold front, with a moist low-level airmass present to its east. As filtered diurnal heating occurs through the remainder of the morning, the boundary layer should gradually destabilize, with around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE eventually developing. Even so, multiple limiting factors remain apparent, including poor mid-level lapse rates tempering updraft strength, stronger deep-layer shear likely remaining confined to the cool side of the surface front, and nearly meridional flow above 1 km AGL limiting opportunity for the band of storms to develop eastward more quickly. Recent inland observations across eastern MD show that gusty outflow winds within the band have remained generally below 40 mph. While sporadic strong to damaging wind gusts may still occur as the line continues to advance slowly eastward, this threat should remain quite isolated/marginal. Finally, there is some low-level shear present ahead of the line from far eastern MD into DE and southeastern PA/western NJ. Recent VWPs from KDOX and KDIX show around 25-30 kt of 0-1 km shear, with about 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH also present. Even with the less than favorable orientation of the line, an embedded low-level circulation capable of producing a brief tornado appears possible. Regardless, the overall severe threat is expected to remain rather marginal owing the previously mentioned limiting factors, and watch issuance is unlikely at this time. ..Gleason/Hart.. 09/23/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38387589 38737592 39577616 40177615 40697590 40967569 40907512 40167470 39537477 38937497 38557521 38307546 38387589 NNNN