ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 122044 
SPC MCD 122044 
MIZ000-WIZ000-122215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

Areas affected...Southeast Wisconsin...southwest Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 122044Z - 122215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms in southeast Wisconsin may maintain
structure and intensify as it enters southwest Lower Michigan. A
watch is uncertain, but convective trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently developed
very near the MCV in central Wisconsin. KMKX Radar imagery shows a
lake-enhanced frontal boundary pushing as far southeast as
Jefferson/Walworth Counties. Storms are likely currently elevated
and could pose a threat for marginally severe hail. The main
question is what will occur as these storms cross Lake Michigan. The
front in Lower Michigan is situated farther north with KGRR radar
showing a fine line structure from Muskegon to north of Grand
Rapids. Given the continued heating downstream and greater forcing
along with the MCV, there is some potential that this activity could
increase in intensity after reaching the southwestern Lower Michigan
shoreline. A watch is not currently likely in Wisconsin, but trends
will be monitored for a possible watch in southwestern Michigan
later.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 09/12/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRR...MKX...

LAT...LON   43338902 43568665 43408569 43148518 42658549 42548677
            42608838 42778893 43038910 43338902 

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