ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 112219 
SPC MCD 112219 
UTZ000-NVZ000-112345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1726
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021

Areas affected...far eastern Nevada and portions of western Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 112219Z - 112345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the
afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed in eastern Nevada.
These storms are currently not particularly strong, but the airmass
downstream is unstable with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg per SPC
mesoanalysis. The sub-cloud layer is well-mixed and therefore,
sufficient evaporative cooling may occur for severe wind gusts in
the stronger downdrafts. SPC mesoanalysis also shows this region to
be favorable for downbursts with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However,
the airmass is not nearly as warm as yesterday where DCAPE was at or
above 1500 and severe wind gusts were more numerous. Therefore, an
isolated severe wind gust or two is possible this afternoon/evening,
but a more widespread threat is not anticipated.

..Bentley/Grams.. 09/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...LKN...

LAT...LON   40691438 41571373 41931314 41921274 41721234 41311201
            40821190 40031217 39441269 38781341 38771397 39971436
            40691438 

NNNN