ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092144 
SPC MCD 092144 
CAZ000-092345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Areas affected...Southern California

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092144Z - 092345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible with convection across interior
southern CA into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery suggests a weak mid-level
short-wave trough is located near coastal southern CA, lifting
slowly north around the western periphery of the southwestern US
ridge. This feature appears to be partly responsible for drawing
higher-PW values across the lower CO River valley into southern
interior CA. Strong boundary-layer heating has effectively removed
what inhibition was noted across this region and deep convection is
now evolving within an air mass characterized by up to 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE with cloud bases just above 3km AGL. With PW values near 1.3
inches, local downbursts appear possible given the steep low-level
lapse rates. Isolated strong storms should continue to develop over
the higher terrain and drift north-northwest, aided in part by the
coastal short wave. Strongest convection should remain well
interior.

..Darrow/Grams.. 09/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...

LAT...LON   33781603 34451722 35311874 36061861 35941720 34461490
            33781603 

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