ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 080840 
SPC MCD 080840 
NYZ000-081115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1712
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

Areas affected...Portions of western NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 080840Z - 081115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong/gusty wind threat may exist with storms
moving eastward early this morning. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A broken, low-topped line of storms should continue to
move east-northeastward from southern Ontario and Lake Erie across
parts of western NY over the next few hours. Strong low/mid-level
flow preceding an upper trough is present over this region, with
recent VWPs from KBUF showing southwesterly winds rapidly
strengthening to around 50 kt only 1 km AGL. Latest surface
observations along/near the shore of Lake Erie have shown an
increase in temperatures into the low to mid 70s, with low 60s
surface dewpoints also present. Modifying a RAP forecast sounding
for current conditions at KBUF suggests a narrow, skinny CAPE
profile exists in the boundary layer. Given the strength of the
low-level flow and the presence of weak MLCAPE, there may be some
potential for isolated strong/gusty downdraft winds associated with
the broken line to reach the surface. Even so, this wind threat is
expected to remain quite isolated through the early morning hours,
and watch issuance is not expected.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 09/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   42357938 42417952 42597924 42827901 43227913 43367893
            43437831 43207827 42827844 42477899 42357938 

NNNN