ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032018 
SPC MCD 032018 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-032245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Fri Sep 03 2021

Areas affected...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...Southwestern
Kansas...and Northwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032018Z - 032245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing over the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles are drifting north-northeastward.  While the
strongest storms will pose the risk of damaging winds, the lack of
stronger flow/shear should limit the overall severe weather threat,
likely precluding the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating south of frontal boundary draped across
Kansas has resulted in moderate instability (>1500 J/kg of MLCAPE)
across southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the eastern Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles.  Scattered thunderstorms have developed in the
warm, moist air south of this boundary, where the flow aloft is
rather weak (~20 knots per AMA VWP).  While these storms drift
north-northeastward toward the boundary, the effective bulk shear
increases, especially north of the boundary.  

Mid-level lapse rates are rather weak across the area, so the
primary threat will likely be damaging downburst winds from
precipitation loading effects, given the record to near-record PW
values across the area (per DDC and AMA 12Z soundings this morning).
The best chance for an organized severe wind threat would be if a
cluster of storms organized and rode near/along the boundary in
southern Kansas.  At this time, the severe threat is expected to
remain rather isolated, so a watch appears unlikely.

..Jirak/Grams.. 09/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   35580083 35760017 36149965 36529889 36789800 37069736
            37549722 37899741 37889881 37839961 37640042 37450096
            37060143 36530173 36040236 35660203 35580083 

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