ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 310931 
SPC MCD 310931 
GAZ000-ALZ000-311100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1658
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

Areas affected...East central/southeast AL and west central GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 310931Z - 311100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A low-end threat for a brief/weak tornado or two will
persist this morning, but a watch is not anticipated in the short
term.

DISCUSSION...The primary confluence band, to the east of the remnant
center of tropical cyclone Ida, extends from south central into east
central AL.  A narrow corridor of 73-74 F surface dewpoints extends
along this confluence zone, where buoyancy is relatively larger and
coincident with the belt of stronger low-level shear/SRH.  Buoyancy
is marginal for a supercell/tornado threat, but there is enough CAPE
to support updrafts producing lightning, so an isolated/weak tornado
will still be possible with the more persistent supercell structures
in the confluence band.  Given that this is still well before the
diurnal heating cycle, the prospects for much ramp up in the tornado
threat appear limited.  Thus, a watch is not anticipated in the next
couple of hours.

..Thompson.. 08/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   32988590 33878565 33968519 33808483 33368485 32688510
            32078556 31468598 31338639 31458662 32388612 32988590 

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