ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 302013 
SPC MCD 302013 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-302215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

Areas affected...eastern Mississippi into Alabama...western Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 475...

Valid 302013Z - 302215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 475 continues.

SUMMARY...Conditions remain sufficiently favorable for a tornado
risk in association with Ida. The primary risk area appears to be
from eastern Mississippi into western Alabama.

DISCUSSION...Three primary bands of convection persist from MS into
AL and the FL Panhandle this afternoon. The middle band has been the
most productive in terms of tornado risk, but has lost intensity
with time as it translated east into central AL. Widespread rain is
likely limited potential here.

To the east, scattered storms persist across southeast AL and into
the FL Panhandle. Here, instability is maximized, but this area is
on the eastern fringe of the more favorable shear. As such, the
tornado risk here may remain low.

In the near term, the most favorable area may be with a newly
developed band consisting of broken cells over far eastern MS. The
environment here consists of 250+ 0-1 km SRH, as well as a narrow
sector of recovering air mass out of the southwest. This may yield a
tornado risk which may shift again into parts of AL.

..Jewell.. 08/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30178898 30348927 30948918 31448885 32388870 33028894
            33328907 33508895 33528842 33548766 33478718 33318677
            32848642 32128637 31088646 30548665 30258689 30168787
            30148837 30178898 

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