ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 281813 
SPC MCD 281813 
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-282015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1629
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Areas affected...east-central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin

Concerning...Tornado Watch 468...

Valid 281813Z - 282015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 468 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to persist out of Minnesota and
across northern Wisconsin, with primarily damaging gust potential.

DISCUSSION...A compact but long-lived MCS is now crossing the MS
River, with extensive outflow boundary trailing southwestward. The
strongest part of this MCS is traveling along a diffuse boundary.
South of this boundary, temperatures continue to slowly rise to near
80 F despite substantial cloud cover. Breaks in the clouds do exist
however, from near the Twin Cities into western WI.

Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg ahead of the
MCS, which should support a continues damaging wind threat. The 18Z
MPX sounding shows the effects of cooler, stabilizing outflow air
from convection over IA, and this will likely limit southward growth
potential with the ongoing MCS. Embedded areas of rotation cannot be
ruled out within the arcing line of convection, though effective SRH
ahead of the MCS is currently only averaging around 100 m2/s2.

..Jewell.. 08/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   46289283 46729165 46989074 46759032 46249000 45698997
            45369041 45199157 45189320 45259367 45639341 45869329
            46039332 46289283 

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