ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 281439 
SPC MCD 281439 
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-281645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Areas affected...central Minnesota...northern Wisconsin and western
Upper Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467...

Valid 281439Z - 281645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467
continues.

SUMMARY...An MCS is expected to produce wind damage as it moves
across central Minnesota and into northwest Wisconsin today. A few
significant wind gusts are possible. Additional watches are expected
downstream of WW 467.

DISCUSSION...A small but intense MCS continues to become more
organized as it moves out of northeast SD and into west-central MN,
with impressive IR presentation. Surface temperatures are currently
cool ahead of this system, only in the upper 60s to lower 70s F
north of the warm front.  However, significant elevated instability
is present as seen on the 12Z MPX sounding, and, a differential
heating zone currently exists around the latitude of the Twin
Cities.

SBCAPE is expected to increase with heating throughout the day, and
due to increasing low-level warm advection. Moderate southwest flow
aloft combined with backed/southeasterly surface winds ahead of this
system will maintain favorable shear and storm relative inflow. As
such, this system should at least maintain intensity, and perhaps
strengthen. While embedded areas of rotation or a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out with this system, the primary threat is expected
to be damaging winds.

..Jewell.. 08/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   46029610 46679190 46959101 46959082 46799043 46569023
            46328999 45899004 45499041 45299143 45199283 45109634
            45279631 45669614 46029610 

NNNN