ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 280717 
SPC MCD 280717 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-280945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...West-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 280717Z - 280945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected across northeastern
South Dakota over the next few hours. Hail and strong wind gusts
will be the primary threats. The potential for severe could impact
parts of west-central Minnesota later tonight. Weather watch
issuance remains a possibility.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Aberdeen shows a small
cluster of storms over north-central South Dakota. This cluster will
move eastward into increasing instability across northeast South
Dakota over the next couple of hours. The RAP has MLCAPE across
northeast South Dakota in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range with effective
shear in the 50 to 60 kt range. This should be favorable for
isolated supercells with hail. A sharp temperature inversion exists
in the boundary layer which will keep the storms elevated. Although
this will temper the wind-damage threat, a few strong wind gusts can
still not be ruled out. The severe threat may impact west-central
Minnesota later tonight as the convective cluster remains intact.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 08/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45199559 44989690 45019855 45069910 45179969 45529989
            45839951 45959894 45969806 45909713 45789576 45199559 

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