ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 261812 
SPC MCD 261812 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-261945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Areas affected...Extreme southeast MN/northeast IA...Southwest WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 261812Z - 261945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in the damaging wind threat is possible this
afternoon ahead of a convective line. Watch issuance is currently
considered unlikely.

DISCUSSION...At 18Z, a line of thunderstorms is gradually
intensifying across northeast IA into southeast MN, along a remnant
outflow from the decaying MCS across central IA. While substantial
cloud cover is noted downstream into southwest WI, some modest
heating/destabilization has occurred, especially near and south of a
surface boundary draped from southern WI into southwest MN. 

Continued modest destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse
rates may allow for an increasing damaging wind potential with this
line as it moves northeastward. Relatively modest deep-layer
flow/shear (as noted in KARX VWP) should keep organization
relatively limited, so watch issuance is currently considered
unlikely.

..Dean/Dial.. 08/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   43859258 44309147 44349064 43999015 43658999 43199019
            43059063 42979113 42959185 43199211 43419235 43859258 

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