ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 251646 
SPC MCD 251646 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-251915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

Areas affected...Much of Ohio...indiana and northern kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251646Z - 251915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development underway early this
afternoon may pose some risk for damaging down burst winds.
Widespread severe storms are not expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 1640 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed scattered thunderstorms developing in proximity to a weak MCV
from previous convection. Aloft, a weakness within the ridge
upstream is supporting subtle ascent across much of the upper Ohio
valley.  Along with the weak forcing for ascent, diurnal heating of
a seasonably moist airmass with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F is
supporting 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Vertical shear is quite weak
with the 12z KILN sounding indicating less than 15 kt of effective
shear. This is reflected by the primarily pulse multicell mode of
ongoing storms. As additional convection develops this afternoon a
few strong wind gusts may occur given steep low-level lapse rates
favorable for downbursts. However, little potential for storm
organization and a resulting greater sever risk exists, negating the
need for a weather watch.

..Lyons/Kerr.. 08/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   40348591 39978519 39818483 39898443 40118411 40318385
            40428338 40668275 40798199 40758143 40538102 40068099
            39528137 39118207 38868300 38638388 38538475 38628569
            38988679 39588747 40138719 40348591 

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