ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241744 
SPC MCD 241744 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-241915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Areas affected...northeast Iowa...extreme southeast Minnesota and
southwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241744Z - 241915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind may undergo an increase across
northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin this
afternoon. Overall scenario is not particularly high confidence, but
trends are being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...As of early afternoon a line of storms has recently 
undergone some intensification along the southern MN / northern IA
border. These storms are developing on the cool side of an east-west
oriented convective outflow boundary. South of this boundary the
atmosphere is destabilizing with MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg
supported by strong diabatic heating of the moist surface layer.
Theta-e advection from the unstable warm sector may contribute to
further intensification of storms north of the boundary. It also
appears that an MCV or meso-gamma-scale circulation is evident along
the northern end of the line which might help to sustain an
organized linear MCS next few hours despite tendency for slight
warming aloft.

..Dial/Kerr.. 08/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43539274 43769148 43728986 43178960 42698997 42549171
            42669328 43539274 

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