ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 212022 
SPC MCD 212022 
OKZ000-TXZ000-212215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1574
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Areas affected...the Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 212022Z - 212215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase in coverage over the next
several hours, and a few may become marginally severe with localized
gust potential or marginal hail.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stalled front/theta-e gradient
extending from southeast NM across the TX Panhandle and across
northern OK. Although warm aloft, the air mass continues to warm
with ample boundary-layer moisture in place, resulting in MLCAPE
over 2000 J/kg. Shear will remain weak across the region, though
low-level theta-e may increase north of the front this evening with
modest 850 mb flow.

A few storms have already developed from the northeast TX Panhandle
southwestward into NM, and lift along the front and an uncapped air
mass should result in increasing storm coverage through early
evening. Both cells and clusters of storms are possible, and a few
may produce strong/low-end severe gusts or brief periods of mainly
marginal hail.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/21/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36929846 36759793 36429783 35979800 35679834 35319893
            35039964 34860041 34800118 34920176 35210199 35590184
            36150148 36620062 36859895 36929846 

NNNN