ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 210237 
SPC MCD 210237 
MOZ000-KSZ000-210400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1572
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas and Northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454...

Valid 210237Z - 210400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts may persist for a few
more hours across WW 454 and vicinity. New watch issuance is not
anticipated, however, convective trends will continue to be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of intense/severe storms continues to
track eastward across portions of central into northeast Kansas and
entering northwest Missouri. Several reports of damaging winds have
occurred with the transition to a linear convective mode. This
threat may persist for a few more hours where cold pools are able to
remain colocated with the parent convection and overcome the onset
of inhibition amid a very convectively unstable downstream
environment (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg). The presence of a developing
low-level jet and attendant low-level shear should also promote
convective maintenance in the short-term. However, storms should
eventually be overcome by increasing convective inhibition and a
lack of upper-level support amid weak deep-layer shear.

The current expectation is for the strongest storms to remain
confined to WW 454 and isolated adjacent areas south/southwest of
the watch across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas. At
this time, a new watch issuance is not anticipated, however,
convective trends will continue to be monitored for any sustained
convective elements that may pose a broader risk for damaging wind
gusts.

..Karstens.. 08/21/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39939516 39869452 39449400 38019460 37669562 37329821
            37999836 38629720 39289626 39799575 39939516 

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