ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 200355 
SPC MCD 200355 
NEZ000-KSZ000-200530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

Areas affected...central NE...north-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 200355Z - 200530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch to the east of tornado
watch #450 is not likely as a gradual lessening of the severe threat
occurs late this evening into the overnight.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a squall line from Thedford, NE
arching southwestward to the KS/NE/CO border as of 0345 UTC.  A
strong south-southeasterly LLJ will probably continue to strengthen
over the next several hours and gradually veer to southerly.  The
Goodland, KS and Dodge City, KS WSR-88D VAD data show 40-50 kt being
sampled around 1 km AGL of the LLJ, indicative of strong low-level
warm air advection.  Despite increasing convective inhibition, rich
low-level moisture characterized by surface dewpoints near 70 deg F,
will aid in maintaining a squall line across central NE and far
northern KS late tonight.  However, the aforementioned increase in
convective inhibition and sub-optimal orientation of the squall line
with respect to the low- to mid-level shear vector, both suggest a
lessening in potential for severe gusts overnight.  Nonetheless,
isolated severe gusts may continue for the next several hours but
the perceived spatial coverage of severe gusts will probably
preclude the need for an additional watch tonight.

..Smith/Thompson.. 08/20/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41640017 41769897 41209845 40089797 39319825 39199941
            39390031 41640017 

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