ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192246 
SPC MCD 192246 
OKZ000-TXZ000-192345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1562
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma and Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192246Z - 192345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind threat may continue for a few more
hours, watch issuance not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a small cluster of storms entering
portions of southwest Oklahoma, with a history of producing damaging
wind gusts, including a 71 kt gust at the Hollis, OK, mesonet site
at 2210 UTC. These storms have formed in environment characterized
by MLCAPE near 3500-4000 J/kg and weak deep-layer shear. Relatively
steep low-level lapse rates near 8 C/km and modest low-level shear
(25 kt 0-3 km AGL per KFDR VAD) is likely enough to support a
continued threat of damaging wind gusts for a few more hours, at
least until day time heating subsides. Given the current expectation
for an isolated wind threat, watch issuance is unlikely.

..Karstens/Thompson.. 08/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33869954 34430018 35479969 35499816 33779819 33869954 

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