ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192029 
SPC MCD 192029 
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-192230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

Areas affected...Southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192029Z - 192230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional severe environment exists over southwest
Kansas and parts of the Oklahoma Panhandle. However, storm
development is uncertain due to weak forcing for ascent and residual
capping. This uncertainty precludes the need for a watch at this
time.

DISCUSSION...Recent RAP mesoanalysis fields show MLCAPE has
increased to 2000-2500 J/kg over the past couple of hours over
southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles thanks to higher quality
boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s).
While this region lies on the periphery of stronger flow aloft,
effective bulk shear values between 20-30 knots are marginally
sufficient for organized storms. However, forcing for ascent across
southwest KS is modest and mainly focused along a diffuse dryline
with stronger synoptic lift displaced further to the north.
Furthermore, nearby ongoing convection in eastern CO is struggling
within this environment due to a combination of weak ascent,
residual capping, and somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates. These
factors limit confidence in the development of robust convection,
but if a storm can become sustained it may pose a wind/hail risk
this afternoon and perhaps a tornado risk this evening as the
low-level jet strengthens and SRH increases. Due to the very
conditional nature of this risk, and potentially limited storm
coverage, a watch is not expected at this time.

..Moore/Dial.. 08/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   37070208 37640209 38110195 38350143 38260034 37939973
            37009956 36740018 36700146 37070208 

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