ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 171222 SPC MCD 171222 SCZ000-GAZ000-171415- Mesoscale Discussion 1543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 Areas affected...Parts of northeast and east central Georgia into western South Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 443... Valid 171222Z - 171415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 443 continues. SUMMARY...The development of isolated supercell structures with the potential to produce short-lived tornadoes remains possible to the northeast of the weakening remnants of Fred. This may gradually spread across the remainder of northeastern Georgia into Upstate South Carolina by 10 am-12 pm EDT. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a new watch, but it is also possible that the threat may become marginal and/or isolated enough that a new watch may not be needed. DISCUSSION...More substantive central pressure rises have been occurring the past few hours as Fred migrates northward. A corresponding weakening of low-level wind fields has also been observed, and these trends are likely to continue as the depression progresses north-northeast of the Auburn, AL vicinity, toward the Greater Atlanta metro through 14-16Z. Mid-level subsidence warming nosing northeastward around the southern through eastern periphery of the circulation aloft is contributing to diminishing convective potential across the Warner Robins/Macon vicinity into the Greater Atlanta area, and this is forecast to continue spreading toward the Savannah River through mid to late morning. This also corresponds with a weak surface wind shift, and the onset more unidirectional shear in the near surface layer. Ahead of the wind shift, strongest mid/upper forcing for ascent, low-level convergence and largest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will generally be focused in an area overspreading northeastern Georgia into Upstate South Carolina through 14-16Z. Although wind fields are gradually weakening, southerly 850 mb flow on the order of 30+ kt may still contribute to sufficiently large low-level hodographs to maintain at least some risk for the development of supercell structures with the potential to produce tornadoes. This probably will be aided by at least some further increase of surface dew points through the lower to mid 70s F across parts of the Piedmont. ..Kerr.. 08/17/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34458355 34918266 34188175 33458189 32948238 33708311 34068367 34458355 NNNN