ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161828 
SPC MCD 161828 
TXZ000-NMZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161828Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through
the afternoon. A few instances of damaging wind and/or hail will be
possible, but storms will likely remain too transient and
disorganized for a robust severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along a southwestward
propagating outflow boundary across the northern TX Panhandle.
Additional isolated storms are deepening within a growing cumulus
field that has developed along a diffuse trough axis. Weak flow over
the region, as sampled by the KAMA VWP, suggests that storms will
likely remain disorganized and outflow-driven. Reflectivity trends
from the cluster north of Amarillo, TX support this idea as
northward propagating storms are outpaced by the southwestward
moving outflow. However, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is supporting a few
stronger updraft pulses capable of severe hail (as indicated by
recent MRMS vertically integrated ice trends). Additionally, gradual
diurnal warming ahead of the outflow across the central and western
Panhandle is allowing low-level lapse rates to steepen to near 8
C/km, which may support sporadic damaging downburst winds. Overall,
the severe threat will most likely remain too isolated and transient
for a watch.

..Moore/Hart.. 08/16/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35160312 35540278 35920194 36050129 35820038 35420012
            34860013 34440046 34070114 33870202 33800267 33970302
            34560325 35160312 

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