ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 142334 
SPC MCD 142334 
NMZ000-AZZ000-CAZ000-150130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Areas affected...Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142334Z - 150130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue this afternoon across the southeast
quadrant of Arizona. Gusty thunderstorm outflows will be possible
with the strongest thunderstorms, but an overall widespread wind
threat is not anticipated. As such a watch is not expected this
afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon
across the southeast quadrant of Arizona. These thunderstorms are
slowly moving west on the southern periphery of a strong anticyclone
across the Great Basin. Surface temperatures in the low 90s F and
dewpoints in the low 70s F have contributed to upwards of 3000 J/kg
of most-unstable CAPE across central Arizona. Despite this degree of
instability, low-level and mid-level lapse rates are significantly
weaker than in previous days (likely owing to convective overturning
from last night's convection) and not as conducive to downward
momentum transport. This should limit the overall severe wind
potential to localized areas, generally associated with storm-scale
processes. This, combined with high-resolution guidance suggestive
of waning thunderstorm intensity with the loss of diurnal heating
should preclude the need for a watch.

..Marsh/Goss.. 08/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   32521486 34221452 34531332 34531068 34170940 33590900
            31990899 31240914 31251105 32451486 32521486 

NNNN