ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 141624 
SPC MCD 141624 
MEZ000-NHZ000-141800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Areas affected...central and eastern ME

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 141624Z - 141800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms could produce strong,
locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
in the vicinity of a surface cold front across western ME. Morning
convection that moved across the state has limited heating over
portions of the region, but some airmass recovery is underway.
Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath moderate midlevel
flow will support isolated strong convection through the afternoon
as the cold front progresses east/southeast across New England.
Pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and steepening low level lapse
rates, along with PW values approaching 2 inches, will support
semi-organized cells/clusters capable of sporadic strong, to locally
damaging gusts. Marginal effective shear magnitudes and a lack of
stronger instability with poor midlevel lapse rates should limit a
more organized and intense threat, and a watch is not expected at
this time.

..Leitman/Hart.. 08/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   47166889 47366826 47236802 46966768 46046751 45426738
            44836738 44456772 43536955 43197064 43577100 43967088
            44617054 45816985 46226956 47166889 

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