ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 132314 
SPC MCD 132314 
VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-140015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Areas affected...New York

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437...

Valid 132314Z - 140015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue east across eastern New York.
Strong thunderstorm outflows and hail are the main threat. Behind
this line of severe thunderstorms, additional thunderstorms may
occur but overall intensity should largely remain below severe
limits.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of thunderstorms continue across
portions of central and eastern New York, with the strongest
thunderstorms stretching from Delaware to Albany counties. These
thunderstorms continue to work their way east and will pose a threat
for gusty thunderstorm winds and hail.

Behind this cluster of storms, the airmass remains moist and
unstable, capable of producing scattered thunderstorms. Forcing for
ascent remains somewhat diffuse, which will limit the overall
coverage and intensity. This threat will diminish rapidly with the
loss of daytime heating. 

There is a growing signal that a second round of thunderstorms may
impact portions of the area later this evening and overnight, as
thunderstorms currently across western Pennsylvania move northeast
into New York and interact with the advancing cold front moving out
of Canada. Current expectation is that western portions of Severe
Thunderstorm watch 437 could be canceled early, and that any threat
later this evening would be addressed in subsequent discussions or
watches.

..Marsh.. 08/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   42577759 44057532 43847339 42137323 41587377 41097518
            40707686 41597775 42577759 

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