ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 132202 
SPC MCD 132202 
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-132300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Areas affected...DE...southern NJ...southeast PA...portions of the
MD Eastern Shore

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 132202Z - 132300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A risk for damaging thunderstorm winds will exist through
the early evening hours.  Trends are being monitored for the
possibility of a small Severe Thunderstorm Watch prior to 23z.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of strong/severe thunderstorms producing
scattered reports of wind damage continues to move steadily east
across extreme southeast PA and portions of eastern MD in the
Baltimore vicinity as of 22z. The downstream environment appears
favorable for a continued severe wind risk to the east of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 436 for at least a few more hours given
moderate/strong MLCAPE, before nocturnal cooling gradually results
in increasing CINH. Latest CAM guidance also suggests a severe risk
continuing into early evening, and trends will continue to be
monitored for the possibility of a small Severe Thunderstorm Watch
prior to 23z.

..Bunting/Goss.. 08/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   38077518 38247586 39377577 39717561 39767527 39757499
            39687474 39537436 39437430 39287429 38587450 38077518 

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