ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 122244 
SPC MCD 122244 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-122345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Areas affected...Southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122244Z - 122345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms west of Boston may pose a risk
for a few damaging wind gusts early this evening. Weakening of the
storms is ongoing and should continue limiting the threat.

DISCUSSION...KBOX radar data showed a line of thunderstorms along
the CT MA border moving east around 45 mph. SPC mesoanalysis
indicates around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present but decreases
considerably near the Atlantic coast. Several measured severe wind
gusts near Springfield MA in the last hour suggest a few instances
of wind damage may still be possible with these storms as they track
toward the east early this evening. However, radar echo tops have
shown a considerable decrease in the last half hour as storms
approached the Boston and Providence metro regions. This suggests
storms are weakening rapidly as diurnal heating is diminishing. The
weakening trend is forecast to continue, but a few strong wind gusts
may still accompany thunderstorms through early evening.

..Lyons.. 08/12/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   42027328 43197236 43397155 42987103 42677086 42217051
            41827061 41467087 41297133 41307197 41547268 42027328 

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