ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111126 
SPC MCD 111126 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-111330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Areas affected...Far Northeast MO...Extreme Southeast
IA...West-Central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111126Z - 111330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and/or a few damaging wind gusts
possible over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorms across far northeast MO and
extreme southeast IA has gradually intensified over the past hour.
This activity currently appears to be rooted in the 850 mb to 700 mb
layer. The downstream air mass is characterized by steep mid-level
lapse rates and strong buoyancy, suggesting the ongoing cluster will
likely be maintained in the short-term. Estimated storm motion takes
these storms across west-central IL over the next two hours. Given
the prevailing low-level stability, the primary severe threat will
be large hail. However, a few strong gust may be able to penetrate
this low-level stable layer, especially with eastern extent where
greater low-level moisture currently exists. Overall severe coverage
is uncertain, precluding higher watch probabilities. However,
convective trends are being monitored closely.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   40479218 41219108 41588989 41238938 40538906 39849031
            39679257 40479218 

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