ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101545 
SPC MCD 101545 
ILZ000-MOZ000-101815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1458
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern MO into western IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 101545Z - 101815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A small cluster of storms may continue to move eastward
across parts of central/eastern Missouri and western Illinois this
morning and early afternoon. Damaging winds should be the main
threat, and watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms related to earlier overnight
convection across NE/KS have persisted through the late morning
across parts of western and central MO. Even though outflow has
surged well ahead of the primary small cluster based on recent data
from KEAX, it does appear to be maintaining its intensity based on
observed cloud to ground lightning flashes and IR cloud tops. Even
though the low to mid-level westerly flow over MO is not overly
strong per recent VWPs from KEAX, it may be sufficient for continued
modest storm organization. A linear/cluster mode should persist as
convection develops eastward across central/eastern MO through the
rest of the morning and continuing into the early afternoon. The
airmass downstream of this activity is already strongly unstable,
with 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE present. As robust diurnal heating of
a very moist low-level airmass characterized by mid to upper 70s
surface dewpoints occurs this afternoon, instability is expected to
strengthen further while weak convective inhibition is removed.
Steepening low-level lapse rates combined with the large reservoir
of buoyancy suggest some threat for scattered damaging downdraft
winds if the ongoing cluster can maintain its integrity for the next
hour or two and subsequently strengthen as it moves into eastern MO
and eventually western IL. Trends will be monitored for signs of
increasing convective intensity and organization, with watch
issuance possible.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...EAX...

LAT...LON   38919342 39269327 39609330 40169234 40129076 39919010
            39378910 38318921 38329048 38609252 38919342 

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