ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 080120 
SPC MCD 080120 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-080215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Panhandle...northwestern
Oklahoma...southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412...

Valid 080120Z - 080215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412
continues.

SUMMARY...Remaining valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412
could be locally extended in time for an hour or two.  However, the
risk for severe weather appears to be waning, and another watch is
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Nocturnal southerly low-level intensification should
commence along/east of surface troughing across the Texas South
Plains and Panhandle into southwest Kansas during the next few
hours.  This could contribute to maintenance of thunderstorm
activity into late evening, but this probably will largely become
focused to the cool side of a convective outflow enhanced front
which is forecast to stall near/north of Medicine Lodge, KS into
areas near/southwest of Amarillo.  To the warm side of this surface
front, increasing inhibition associated with boundary-layer cooling
beneath warm elevated mixed-layer, near/south of the southern
periphery of mid-level troughing turning eastward across the central
Great Plains, likely will result in further waning of convective
development.

..Kerr.. 08/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35630233 36480254 36820134 37529991 37739953 38009897
            37269785 35690013 33630329 35630233 

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