ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 281528 
SPC MCD 281528 
MNZ000-281730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Areas affected...Northeast/North-Central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 281528Z - 281730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail are
possible over the next few hours across north-central/northeast MN.

DISCUSSION...Two strong updrafts have recently developed within the
warm air advection regime across northeast MN. The environment over
the region is characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates and
strong low-level stability below about 750-700 mb. Above this layer,
enough moisture is in place to limit convective inhibition and
provide modest buoyancy. Additionally, strong northwesterly flow
exists above 750-700 mb, supporting rotation/organization if
updrafts can be maintained. The ongoing severe storms are evidence
of this scenario. The air mass downstream of these storms across the
MN Arrowhead is not as buoyant, but the organized character of these
storms suggests that the threat for large hail may exist with these
two storms for the next hour or two. 

Additional storm development appears possible back farther west
across more of north-central MN where some deeper cumulus is
currently clustered. As with the ongoing storms, any additional
development would pose a threat for large hail.

..Mosier/Hart.. 07/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   47979576 48349521 48429439 48159378 47729298 47139240
            46559289 46499350 46899507 47329576 47979576 

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