ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 280748 SPC MCD 280748 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-281015- Mesoscale Discussion 1371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021 Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern ND...far northeastern SD...and western/central MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 280748Z - 281015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing mainly isolated large hail may develop through the early morning hours. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...A minor mid-level disturbance over the northern Plains appears to be rounding the apex of the upper high centered over the central Plains early this morning. This perturbation, coupled with a strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet over the northern Plains per recent mesoanalysis and area VWPs, is likely contributing to the uptick in convection across the far eastern Dakotas. The 00Z sounding from ABR sampled steep mid-level lapse rates (8.3 C/km in the 700-500-mb layer) atop a rich low-level airmass. Resultant instability remains very strong early this morning across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with MUCAPE of 3500-4500 J/kg present in a fairly narrow corridor extending from eastern ND to southern MN. The flow across this region veers from around 30-35 kt of southwesterly low-level winds to west-northwesterly while slowly strengthening at mid/upper levels. Related favorable deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt should prove favorable for updraft organization. An elevated supercell or two appears possible in this favorable environment, mainly posing a threat for isolated large hail. Even with some convective inhibition, strong to locally severe wind gusts may also occur given the large amount of instability present. At this point, the overall severe threat is expected to remain fairly isolated owing to the modest large-scale ascent aloft. While convective and observational trends will be closely monitored though the early morning, a watch currently appears unlikely. ..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/28/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 44379647 45479787 46699775 46909742 46619608 45639446 44819445 44289540 44379647 NNNN