ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 262200 SPC MCD 262200 MNZ000-WIZ000-270000- Mesoscale Discussion 1355 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021 Areas affected...north-central and northeast Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 262200Z - 270000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of very large hail, gusty thunderstorm winds, and a tornado or two will be possible across the area this afternoon and evening. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the area later today. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms persist across north-central Minnesota this afternoon associated with modest warm-air advection along a west-northwest to east-southeast warm-front draped across northern Minnesota. Although temperatures have warmed into the mid-to-upper-80s F along both sides of the warm front, surface moisture, as measured by dewpoints, dramatically increases to the south, rising from mid 50s F north to mid 60s F south. The result is a strongly unstable airmass along and south of the warm front. Strong deep-layer shear across the region will likely sustain thunderstorm intensity and organization into he evening hours, with supercell thunderstorms possible. Warm-air advection is expected to continue through the evening hours, even strengthening after 00Z. The result should be one or more rounds of thunderstorms across the region. Given the degree of instability and strong shear, very large hail and gusty thunderstorm winds will be likely with any intense thunderstorm. Additionally, the presence of a warm-front across the area will result in the potential for a tornado or two with any surface-based or near-surface-based supercell that interacts with the warm front. A watch will likely be needed this afternoon or evening across portions of the area. ..Marsh/Grams.. 07/26/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47809584 48309571 48549430 48319312 47879203 47279165 46519166 45699292 46009468 47069564 47809584 NNNN