ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 222242 
SPC MCD 222242 
NDZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-230115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

Areas affected...southwest North Dakota into western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222242Z - 230115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts remain possible this evening, mainly
through 01 or 02Z. Coverage of severe is not expected to warrant a
watch.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms producing strong to severe wind
gusts and sporadic/marginal hail continues to propagate east across
the western Dakotas. Hot temperatures over 100 F exist ahead of this
line with a deep mixed layer. While large-scale support is weak
beneath the upper ridge, the heated air mass, 55-60 F dewpoints, and
deep-layer shear near 30 kt support isolated severe gust potential
as late as 02Z. Thereafter, CIN will increase and there will be
little nocturnal low-level jet, suggesting the threat will end. The
latest CAMs also support this scenario, with diurnal storms ending
between 01-02Z.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 07/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   44150406 44880374 45390344 45810324 46210307 46730237
            46690148 46430086 46080048 45360071 44620164 44230233
            43990288 44010373 44150406 

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