ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171715 
SPC MCD 171715 
VAZ000-NCZ000-171945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southern VA and western/central NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 171715Z - 171945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for occasional damaging wind gusts should
continue as storms move eastward this afternoon. The overall severe
threat will probably remain fairly isolated/marginal, and watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Storms have recently formed along/east of the Blue
Ridge Mountains in southern VA and western NC. Additional storms may
develop this afternoon along a pre-frontal trough across
south-central VA into central NC. Visible satellite imagery shows
mostly clear skies ahead of this activity, and robust diurnal
heating has already warmed surface temperatures into the upper 80s
and lower 90s as of 17Z. MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg will be present
across the warm sector, even with mid-level lapse rates remaining
poor. Steepening low-level lapse rates should support some potential
for strong/gusty downdraft winds with any loosely organized clusters
that can form. However, deep-layer shear is expected to remain quite
weak across this region (25 kt or less), with the stronger mid-level
southwesterly flow displaced well to the north. This should keep
overall storm organization modest at best, and the threat for
damaging wind gusts fairly isolated. At this point, it appears that
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will probably not be needed due
to the limited storm organization expected.

..Gleason/Dial.. 07/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   35528102 35938140 36438120 37058005 37487884 37777832
            37737756 37027740 36167768 35497850 35367964 35528102 

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