ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161534 
SPC MCD 161534 
MEZ000-161800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Areas affected...Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161534Z - 161800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may increase in intensity within the surface trough
over the next several hours. Marginally severe hail or wind is most
likely, but a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out where surface
winds remain backed.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows strong heating across southern
NH and ME with a thicker band of cloud and PWAT ahead of the cold
front. A few storms were already ongoing near the zone of
differential heating.

As the surface low continues to pull away from the region, low-level
winds will continue to veer, in part due to boundary-layer mixing.
While this will reduce low-level shear, hodographs may be
sufficiently long to support a few strong to severe cells or small
lines capable of hail or localized strong gusts. 

As of 1530Z, objective analysis indicates around 100 m2/s2 0-1km SRH
over eastern ME where surface winds are more southerly than farther
west. As ongoing storms over central ME continue east, some
strengthening is anticipated due to heating and destabilization. Any
tornado threat is highly conditional on low-level shear remaining
strong enough through the afternoon.

..Jewell/Dial.. 07/16/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   45656894 46006813 45926776 45626733 45316732 44986744
            44626764 44366796 44046850 43926913 43367038 43777080
            44217080 44867007 45656894 

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