ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152009 
SPC MCD 152009 
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-152245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Areas affected...Southeast WY...Southwest NE Panhandle...Eastern CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152009Z - 152245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible this afternoon and
evening, with a threat of isolated severe hail and wind.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed near Limon,
Colorado, with other convection increasing to the northwest across
the higher terrain of southeast WY. While storm coverage will likely
remain isolated due to weak large-scale ascent, weak-to-moderate
instability and low-level southeasterly flow veering to modest
northwesterly flow aloft will support the potential for organized
storms. A supercell or two may eventually develop and track
southeastward, posing a localized risk of hail and severe gusts. The
severe risk is expected to be diurnally driven and peak during the
late afternoon/early evening before nocturnal stabilization reduces
the threat with time tonight.

..Dean/Bunting.. 07/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38490267 38040395 38790430 39980476 40920520 41310548
            42150579 42420514 42110412 41910396 41060325 39990294
            38980271 38490267 

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