ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151932 
SPC MCD 151932 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-152130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151932Z - 152130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible later this afternoon,
with a threat of locally damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...At 1930Z, convection is gradually increasing near a
weak surface boundary across southeast KS into southwest MO, in
advance of an MCV moving across south-central KS. While widespread
clouds are noted across much of the area, somewhat more substantial
heating has occurred to the south/east of the boundary, where some
clearing has occurred this afternoon. Where temperatures have risen
into the mid/upper 80s F, MLCAPE has increased into the 1500-2500
J/kg range, per recent mesoanalyses. A few strong storms may evolve
along this instability axis this afternoon, as modestly enhanced
midlevel flow associated with the MCV overspreads the region. A few
briefly organized cells/clusters will be possible, with locally
damaging winds possible where low-level lapse rates have steepened. 

Another round of potentially strong storms will be possible this
evening across the same general region, as a low-level jet becomes
focused into the area.

..Dean/Bunting.. 07/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37199398 36599546 36339608 36319665 36949660 37099646
            37459613 37789560 37919536 38639406 38759384 38929338
            38339269 37899261 37779288 37419346 37199398 

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