ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 121551 SPC MCD 121551 FLZ000-121745- Mesoscale Discussion 1264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021 Areas affected...portions of the FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121551Z - 121745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic strong, locally damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible with more intense thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of the Florida Peninsula. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing across southern FL, moving toward the central peninsula, in the vicinity of an outflow boundary from overnight/early morning convection. Additional convection is also beginning to develop over eastern portions of the peninsula in developing sea breeze and deep southeasterly flow. Moderate to strong instability is already in place with dewpoints well into the 70s F amid strong surface heating and modest midlevel cooling. Little to no inhibition remains over the region, and convection should continue to increase in coverage over the next couple of hours as storms track toward the northwest. Deep layer flow will generally remain weak over the region and this will inhibit storm organization somewhat. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and strong instability should compensate and allow for at least briefly intense cells within thunderstorm clusters. High PW values also will help contribute to damaging wind potential via wet microburst processes. Some hail also could briefly accompany any more intense cells, but longevity of intense updrafts should remain limited given weak vertical shear. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon. ..Leitman/Dial.. 07/12/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29628308 29828274 29798232 29608200 29198155 28618109 28288095 27158086 26668081 26608082 26538103 26448175 26648220 26998255 27768291 28538290 29198318 29558314 29628308 NNNN