ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111648 
SPC MCD 111648 
TXZ000-NMZ000-111815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

Areas affected...Southeast NM...far West TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 111648Z - 111815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A small area of strong/severe storms may continue for the
next few hours with damaging winds and large hail the primary risks.
 Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
possible prior to 18z.

DISCUSSION...A small area of severe thunderstorms has developed over
portions of Chaves and Lea Counties in southeast NM since 15z. 
Seasonably high low-level moisture and substantial heating have
resulted in moderate/strong MLCAPE, and northwesterly mid-level flow
averaging 20 kts is sufficient for updraft organization. In the
short term, these storms may persist and congeal into a small
cluster while moving generally south/southeast, with a continued
severe wind/hail risk given destabilization of the downstream
environment and strengthening effective shear values this afternoon.


Convective trends are being monitored, and a watch is possible prior
to 18z.

..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   32650480 33480404 33500370 33190278 32020279 31350311
            31030355 30870408 31240497 32650480 

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