ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110249 
SPC MCD 110249 
NMZ000-110415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 110249Z - 110415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and perhaps a strong wind gust will be
possible with near surface-based supercells moving southeastward in
northeast New Mexico. No WW is expected.

DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed along the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains in northeast New Mexico. With perhaps only subtle
upper-level support, the longevity of this activity is in question.
However, under this steep mid-level lapse rate, northwest flow
regime, 35-40 kts of effective shear could help sustain these
southeastward moving storms longer than expected. Should storms
persist they would encounter greater buoyancy. Isolated large hail
would likely be the main threat with these storms, though a strong
wind gust could also occur before surface stabilization becomes
stronger. Given the uncertainty, no WW is expected.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36020525 36330548 36720489 36390395 35620322 35260326
            35040379 34940433 36020525 

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