ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102009 
SPC MCD 102009 
ILZ000-102145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Areas affected...central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 102009Z - 102145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An additional brief tornado or two remains possible with
the longer lasting, more dominant updrafts over the next couple of
hours. The very brief, localized nature of the severe threat
precludes a WW issuance at this time, though trends will continue to
be monitored.

DISCUSSION...An MCV has recently developed across west-central IL in
association with the remnants of an older MCS that has propagated
out of MO earlier this morning. A few discrete supercells have
developed in close proximity to the MCV center, including a
relatively more dominant supercell with a history of brief tornadoes
over the past 1-2 hours. Ahead of the MCV cluster, locally backed
surface winds have been noted, which are likely locally enhancing
low-level shear, with nearly 200 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, as shown by the
1918Z KILX VWP. 

Nonetheless, buoyancy is quite scant, with well under 500 J/kg
MLCAPE present ahead of the MCV. In addition, precipitation and
clouds ahead of the MCV will continue to hinder more robust surface
heating and subsequent instability from manifesting. As such, the
tornado threat is expected to remain relatively limited overall,
with a brief tornado or two likely with the most dominant storms. A
WW issuance is not anticipated, though trends will continued to be
monitored for an increase in the tornado threat.

..Squitieri/Bunting.. 07/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40289035 40518997 40738922 40798861 40568797 40208779
            39798798 39638858 39698947 39808999 39859036 40289035 

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