ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102005 
SPC MCD 102005 
VAZ000-KYZ000-102200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Areas affected...central and eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 102005Z - 102200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed in an increasingly unstable
environment. Marginally severe hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows
will be possible. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have developed within a
strongly unstable environment with most-unstable CAPE values between
1500-2000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is fairly week across the region,
mostly at or below 30 knots, and mid-level lapse rates are generally
less than 6 C/km. The result of which should act to limit widespread
wind or hail potential, especially in the absence of strong forcing
for ascent. However, given the very moist conditions and strong
instability, a isolated threat for marginally severe hail and a wet
microburst exists. A watch is not currently expected.

..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...

LAT...LON   36788661 37288675 37778553 38078369 37798251 37338202
            36748188 36728390 36788661 

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