ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100054 
SPC MCD 100054 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-100130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

Areas affected...northern into east-central MO...west-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

Valid 100054Z - 100130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued for
much of the area in the short term.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell over the past hour has moved from
southeast IA into west-central IL and is near the edge of severe
thunderstorm watch 358.  The risk for large hail will likely extend
southeastward into west-central IL over the next few hours as the
ongoing activity and additional storms form this evening.  It is
uncertain whether surface-based thunderstorm development will occur
farther west over northern MO in a very unstable airmass (3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE per the Springfield, MO and Topeka, KS 00z raobs).  If storms
develop, the risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts will
correspondingly increase.

..Smith/Thompson.. 07/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   40589273 40309050 40048971 39008935 38628996 38749126
            39179238 39749397 40279387 40589273 

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