ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090728 
SPC MCD 090728 
NYZ000-NJZ000-090930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

Areas affected...coastal portions of New Jersey and into western
Long Island and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 090728Z - 090930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for a brief/weak tornado or two continues near the
New Jersey coast.  WW not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that Elsa's center has moved
offshore east of Cape May, NJ, and is moving steadily
north-northeastward.  To the north and northeast of the center, the
main convective band is likewise advancing northward, while embedded
cells feed westward into coastal portions of southern New Jersey.

Several of these cells continue to exhibit low-level rotation
offshore, per WSR-88D VWP data.  Additionally, some slight increase
in cellular character -- and updraft intensity -- appears to have
occurred with the center of Elsa now over water.  However, the
circulations continue to weaken quickly as they move onshore, and
given the poor thermodynamic environment onshore, this trend should
persist.  Still, a brief/weak tornado or two will remain a
possibility over the next few hours for immediate coastal areas,
with this risk gradually spreading northward toward Long Island
through the 09Z to 10Z time frame.

..Goss/Hart.. 07/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON   39007338 39337380 39417424 39237473 39377492 39817457
            40637417 40597366 39997266 39007338 

NNNN