ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 081611 
SPC MCD 081611 
NCZ000-VAZ000-081815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Areas affected...northeast North Carolina into southeast Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 349...

Valid 081611Z - 081815Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 349 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for brief tornadoes continues in relation to
Elsa, and another watch may be needed extending downstream into
southeast Virginia.

DISCUSSION...Favorable instability is in place along and east of the
track of Elsa, with mid 70s F dewpoints contributing to around 1500
J/kg MLCAPE despite widespread rain and clouds. The stronger
low-level shear/effective SRH is in a relatively concentrated area
near the circulation, but this parameter space should bodily move
northeastward into VA today. Sporadic circulations have been noted
on radar with the primary zone of cells extending from Nash County
NC southeastward toward New Bern.  Cells farther away from the
center, currently over northeast NC and southeast VA, are in a
region of lesser shear, but this should gradually change over the
next several hours, necessitating a new watch.

..Jewell.. 07/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   34517720 34947739 35287778 35617821 35777843 36177839
            36617850 36997833 37337754 37487688 37377618 37177577
            36777580 36297571 36007556 35777537 35237548 34947602
            34797634 34517720 

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