ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060114 
SPC MCD 060114 
NYZ000-060315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CDT Mon Jul 05 2021

Areas affected...Northern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060114Z - 060315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms may produce isolated wind damaging this
evening as it moves into northern New York, though a watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...KTYX imagery shows a line of storms moving across Lake
Ontario towards upstate NY. Surface observations from the western
shore of Ontario reported wind gusts upwards of 25-35 mph, and
velocity data show a few pockets of stronger winds aloft within the
line. A few isolated cells developing across NY ahead of this line
suggest that the thermodynamic environment remains supportive of
convection despite the onset of diurnal cooling and increasing
low-level stability. Modest mid-level flow between 30-40 knots (as
sampled by regional VWPs) will help maintain the line at least for
another 1-2 hours amid waning instability. The general expectation
is for a few instances of damaging winds as the line moves onshore
before gradually weakening across central NY later tonight. Given
the expected weakening trend of the line, a watch is not expected.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43417834 43867745 44407654 44737604 44997551 44847480
            44377458 43927461 43377504 43097566 42857644 42767753
            42987802 43417834 

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