ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 031953 SPC MCD 031953 NEZ000-COZ000-032130- Mesoscale Discussion 1143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031953Z - 032130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains this afternoon/evening. A few storms may produce damaging wind gusts or severe hail. Convective trends will be monitored for a possible weather watch. DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, afternoon visible satellite imagery showed deepening cumulus/thunderstorms developing across the High Plains of Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming beneath a weak upper level trough. SPC mesoanalysis indicates that remaining inhibition will likely dissipate within the next hour or two, as convective temperatures are breached. Regional observations show temperatures well into the 80s to near 90 F, with surface dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s F. The warming surface temperatures, weak upslope flow, and mid-level lapse rates between 7.5 and 8.5 C/km are supporting moderate MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Mid-level flow remains quite weak owing to the diffuse upper air pattern. As a result, vertical shear is lacking, with regional VWPs only sampling 20-25 kts of effective shear. This should limit storms to a multicellular storm mode through this afternoon. Given the degree of buoyancy and steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, a few stronger storm clusters may produce damaging wind gusts or severe hail. As storms track south and east this evening, slightly greater vertical shear will likely develop with the nocturnal low-level jet. A more organized cluster or weak MCS may evolve across portions of eastern Colorado and western Kansas with a risk for damaging wind gusts. The degree of the severe threat and the need for a watch remains uncertain with storms exhibiting limited organization thus far. CAM guidance suggests some clustering may develop by 21-22z as outflow from additional development coalescence. Should the severe threat increase, a weather watch could be needed. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/03/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40760230 39130266 38560304 38430338 38870391 39520405 40070409 41670401 42610355 42900260 42890185 42600156 42030162 40760230 NNNN