ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 260335 COR
SPC MCD 260335 COR
INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-260430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Areas affected...east-central Missouri northeast to northern Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317...319...

Valid 260335Z - 260430Z

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT WATCH NUMBERS

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317, 319
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues to diminish across the watch
areas. A brief window of strong wind potential may remain across
eastern Illinois, but the overall convective trends suggest a new
watch likely will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Overall thunderstorm severity continues to wane across
the watch areas as evidenced by weakening of MESH cores and warming
cloud tops. Additionally, given the loss of diurnal heating, low
level stability should slowly increase overnight, reducing the
potential for organized, severe thunderstorm outflows and brief
tornadoes. However, a recent measured wind gust of 59 knots at
Decatur, IL, reiterates that the wind potential, albeit low, does
remain. Current thinking is that the overall isolated nature of the
threat should preclude the need for a new watch, although a local
extension in time of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317 may be needed if
the wind potential does not diminish as quickly as expected.

..Marsh.. 06/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...

LAT...LON   38359166 40709030 41788609 41628560 40668561 39708705
            39228862 38499034 37759124 38359166 

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