ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 250133 
SPC MCD 250133 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-250300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Areas affected...central Missouri and eastern kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 309...311...

Valid 250133Z - 250300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 309, 311 continues.

SUMMARY...The cluster of severe storms over northern Missouri and
eastern Kansas will move southeastward this evening with a threat
for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. A replacement
severe thunderstorm watch for WW309 and ww311 will be coordinated
shortly.

DISCUSSION...0115z radar observation showed a compact MCS across
portion of eastern Kansas and northern Missouri. Latest echo top
estimations from GOES 16 and MRMS show several towers in the core of
the MCS with tops exceeding 60k feet. Regional soundings and SPC
mesoanalysis indicate a deep reservoir of buoyancy (3000-4000 J/kg
of MLCAPE) exists ahead of the ongoing storms. As the cluster moves
southeastward into undisturbed air over the next couple of hours,
additional development/strengthening is expected. Deep-layer shear
of 30-40 kts will support an organized linear storm mode with short
bowing segments likely. Early indications of a rear inflow jet
developing across far northwestern Missouri suggest damaging wind
gusts (some in excess of 70 mph) are likely. Regional VWPs also
suggest some QLCS tornado threat may evolve given large SRH 0-1 km
of 200-300 m2/s2 and 25-35 kts of 0-3 km line normal shear. Given
current convective trends, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
coordinated to replace parts of WW309 and WW311. An additional watch
may be needed downstream as storms progress southeastward later this
evening.

..Lyons/Grams.. 06/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39889515 40429409 40599315 40539241 40469188 40229163
            39439134 38819122 38059151 37789260 37999400 38589546
            39369586 39889515 

NNNN